Drafting With Intelligence...The Number One Pick

Welcome to TJI's newest feature, "Drafting With Intelligence" (DWI for short). The goal of DWI is to help you make smart fantasy football drafting decisions.

Poor choices on draft day can sink your chances from the outset. Preparation is the key. That's where TJI comes in. You can count on us to get you ready for draft day.

This week, DWI weighs in on that oft-asked question: "What do I do with the Number One pick?"

In years past, the first pick has been clear cut. Unfortunately, it's also been true that the Number One pick in many recent years has ended up disappointing their owners. If you had LaDainian Tomlinson last year, were you truly happy????

So, it's time to Draft With Intelligence...here's our take on two viable and one slightly unconventional options.

Option 1: LT
Pro: Playing with chip on his shoulder after being criticized during last year's AFC Championship loss.
Con: Possible lingering injury concern.
TJI QuickTake: After 31 total TD in 2006, LT dropped to a total of just 18 in 2007. He still seems to be the consensus number one ranked player in fantasy football, but it's difficult to say how many TD to expect. It seems his injury has healed and we really do think that he feels he has something to prove in '08. Do not underestimate LT's ability to take the entire Chargers team on his shoulders. We feel you can draft him with confidence.

Option 2: Adrian Peterson
Pros: Put up huge numbers in several games last year. Plays behind a solid offensive line.
Cons: Missed games due to injury. Might share some carries again with Chester Taylor.
TJI QuickTake: "All Day" Peterson would be a much riskier pick at Number One. The injury concern is really important. He's battled various injuries and missed games since he was at Oklahoma. You'd hate to see him go down for the year early in the season. It's probably for that reason that the Vikes held on to Chester Taylor. They'll keep him in the mix to save AD some wear and tear. He is a tempting pick, though. Particularly with the Tarvaris Jackson taking the snaps at QB. He's not exactly a gunslinger, so the Vikings will lean heavily on the run, giving Peterson plenty of opportunities. Combine that with the fact that he's capable of breaking off an 80 yard touchdown run at any given moment, and we understand the allure. Despite the temptation, however, TJI does not recommend taking Peterson with the number one pick.

Option 3: Tom Brady
Pros: Threw for over 4,800 yards and a record 50 touchdowns last year. Throws to Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Will be motivated by the devastating Super Bowl Loss.
Con: Can't possibly duplicate such a dream season.
TJI QuickTake: In the drafts and mock drafts we've explored so far this year, Brady is rarely drafted number one. But if you're a risk taker and you land the top pick, it might be worth consideration. Obviously, there are no sure things in fantasy football, but it seems fairly certain Brady will toss at least 35 TDs this season. (He couldn't possibly break his own record. Right???) In a 6 point per TD league, that's 210 points. Add on 4,000 passing yards (at 1 point per 25 yd) and that's another 160 points. Even if he throws one INT per game, that's a total of 338 fantasy points in 16 games. Compare that to a projected 320 for Tomlinson (2,000 yards and 20 TD) and maybe, just maybe it makes complete sense to draft Tom Brady number one. (NOTE: In a league where passing TDs earn just 4 points, it's not as sensible). Another thing to keep in mind, of course, is that if you pick number one you have to wait until pick number 24 to choose another player. A lot of good RBs will be gone by then if you take Brady number one. But if you're willing to take the risk on Brady, then you'll be willing to roll with Rudi Johnson and Edgerrin James as your RBs. Yikes. Maybe this is a bad idea after all!

So there you have it. Three options for the number one pick. Are you a play-it-safe type or a throw-caution-to-the-wind type? Let us know. Leave a comment below!